Science of Monsoons | IMD Disaster Management Plan |

India needs better science to prepare more effective disaster management plans

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The southwest monsoon 2020 has officially drawn to an end (धीरे-धीरे खत्म/समाप्त होना; to gradually finish) with the India Meteorological Department (IMD; भारत मौसम विभाग) declaring a withdrawal (वापसी; an act of stopping something from happening or taking something back) of the associated winds and rainfall pattern from India on Wednesday.

The over 8% surplus (अतिरिक्त; an amount that is more than is needed) this year has surpassed (अधिक/श्रेष्ठ होना; to do or be better or greater than something) the IMD’s estimates. For the first time since 2010, India got more than 100% of its long period average (LPA) of 88cm in consecutive (लगातार/क्रमागत; following one after another without an interruption) years.

Last year the country saw record rainfall of 110% of the LPA, the highest in a quarter century. India has never got over 105% of the LPA in consecutive years in at least 30 years, according to records available since 1988 on the IMD website.

Meteorologists (मौसम वैज्ञानिक; who studies the processes that cause particular weather conditions) often speak of two or three decade (दशक; a period of ten years) ‘epochs (युग/काल; a long period of time in which there are new developments and great change)’ of rainfall variation. Since 2000, India was in a low patch (क्षेत्र/भू खंड; a small part of a surface that is different in some way from the area around it) with several drought (सुखा; a long period when there is little or no rain) years and had barely a handful of (मुश्किल से एक मुट्ठी; by the smallest amount; only just) above normal or excess rainfall.

In that light, the two years of a munificent (प्रचुर/उदार; a lot; very generous) monsoon could signal a possible return to a rainy epoch. While it could mean more rain, it also implies floods, overflowing dams, landslides and loss of lives.

Moreover, surplus rains are not evenly distributed in time and space. Therefore, much like there are attempts to improve flood forecast (पूर्वानुमान; a statement of what is likely to happen in the future especially about weather condition) warnings — especially the short­term ones — there ought to be commensurate (बराबर/अनुरूप in a correct and suitable amount compared to something else) efforts by authorities and infrastructure agencies to prepare for the environmental and ecological (पारिस्थितिक/ पर्यावरणीय; relating to living things and their environment) impact of excess rain.

This year the IMD undertook a long­due revision of the onset (शुरुआत; the beginning of something) and withdrawal dates of the monsoon in India. By this reckoning (गणना/गिनती; a calculation that you make), the monsoon’s normal withdrawal date was October 15.

Historically, this has always been a statistical average and the actual withdrawal is usually within a few days of this. However, this year the withdrawal has been extremely delayed. Factoring (घटकों में व्यवस्थित करना;  organize into different components that are easier to maintain and work with) in these changes must become a key part of a State and city’s disaster management preparedness (तत्परता; the state of being prepared for a particular situation).

The  southwest monsoon’s withdrawal also heralds (घोषित/सूचित करना; to make something publicly known) the advent (आगमन; the fact of an event happening or a person arriving) of north­easterly winds that bring in the northeast monsoon to parts of peninsular (प्रायद्वीपीय/उपद्वीपीय; relating to a peninsula – a long piece of land that sticks out from a larger area of land into the sea or into a lake) Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

While significant to the agriculture there, the northeast monsoon contributes 10%­12% of India’s annual rainfall, against the southwest monsoon’s 75%­80%. That, and its limited geographic spread has meant that the northeast monsoon is not showered (वर्षा/फुहारा; a short period of rain or snow) with as much research attention.

However, studies show that northeast monsoon rainfall displays significant variation and climate models are fairly inaccurate in their forecasts of its unfolding (खुलासा/खोलना; becomes clear to other people) over the subcontinent (उपमहाद्वीप; a large area of land that is part of a continent).

There have been significant investments in super computing infrastructure to simulate (दिखावा करना; to do or make something that looks real but is not real) weather as well as to tune (तालमेल; agree with something/someone) forecasts to go beyond just giving rainfall estimates and factor in the potential damage of floods and cyclones (चक्रवात; a large scale air mass that rotates around a strong center of low atmospheric pressure).

Building on these, scientists must also put in more effort and design research programmes that better analyse the vagaries (अनियमितता; unexpected events/changes) of the northeast monsoon. Along with more understanding of how climate is changing locally, India needs better science to prepare more effective disaster management plans and improve resilience (प्रतिरोधक्षमता; the quality of being able to return quickly to a previous good condition after problems) in a warming world.

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